7.13.2013 Power Rankings

13 July Power Rankings Update (NL)

Shorter blurbs (longer in-depth analysis will return at mid-season), but new rankings, with a very brief discussion of the change in rankings

The Elite

  1. 1.       Oakland Bears (Preseason: 3, 5 July: 1, Change: None)
    Record: 51-14  Expected Win %: .732

Record since last update: 19-4

The Bears remain the clear #1 and have separated themselves enough that they are on the verge of creating a new category…  “The Historically elite”.  In the last 22 games, they’ve gone 19-4 and somehow still managed to reduce their expected win % from the earlier absurd values.

  1. 2.       Florida Falcons (Preseason: 1, 5 July: 2, Change: None)
    Record: 40-25  Expected Win %: .658

Record since last update:  15-8

The Falcons have done better in the last 23 games than in the initial 42, and yet the gap between them and the Bears has grown.  Still the team I’d most fear in the playoffs, but haven’t performed as well as the Bears.  Both these teams have solidified themselves at serious title contenders.

The Contenders

  1. 3.       Richmond Firehouse (Preseason: 2, 5 July: 3, Change: None)
    Record: 36-29  Expected Win %: .575

Record since last update:  11-12

Richmond has been a mediocre team over the last 23.  They still have the 5th best record, and 3rd best expected percentage, so the rank remains unchanged for now, but they can’t be considered elite anymore, not after going 0-3 against the Bears and 1-2 against the Falcons in the last 23.  The quality of opponents in that stretch is probably the only thing keeping them in the 3rd spot for now.

  1. 4.       Philadelphia Flyers (Preseason: 7, 5 July: 4, Change: None)
    Record: 37-28  Expected Win %: .526

Record since last update: 13-10

Philly has slowed down, as expected, based on their unsustainable win rate.  That said they’ve managed to get to where they’ve scored more runs than they’ve allowed, and no team below them has been able to peek above them yet.  Despite the slowdown, they’re in danger of bumping up to #3 due to Richmond’s troubles.

  1. 5.       Cleveland Rockers (Preseason: 5, 5 July: 8, Change: +3)
    Record: 35-30  Expected Win %: .515

Record since last update: 15-8

Cleveland moves to the tier of true contenders and seems to have knocked off some early season rust.  The Rockers being only 1 game behind Richmond and having outplayed them in the last 23 is an indication of exactly how close every team in this tier is.  Teams 3 through 7 are basically interchangeable at this point, but none of them have been as hot as the Rockers, who have put up numbers in their last 23 generally reserved for the elite.

  1. 6.       Anaheim Empire (Preseason: 10, 5 July: 7, Change: +1)
    Record: 37-28  Expected Win %: .489

Record since last update: 14-9

Apologies again to Empire and owner klown61455 as they rise only to #6 despite having the 3rd best record in the league.  At least they are considered contenders now after having raised their expected win percentage fully 40 points (.447 to .489) in only 23 games, while going 14-9.  An overall win % below .500 almost kept them down a tier, but they are far enough along now to be real.

The Dark Horses

  1. 7.       St Louis Suds Buckets (Preseason: 6, 5 July: 6, Change: -1)
    Record: 33-32  Expected Win %: .554

Record since last update: 12-11

The Suds Buckets drop a tier due to a mediocre last 23.  By pulling themselves over .500 on the season, the Suds Buckets make the 3rd member of the stacked NL East over that mark as well as the 3rd in the top 7.  The 4 games behind Philly is worrisome as they’ll need to make that difference up at some point.

  1. 8.       Oklahoma City Rough Neckers (Preseason: 4, 5 July: 5, Change: -3)
    Record: 32-33  Expected Win %: .545

Record since last update: 11-12

Despite the increase in number of team considered true contenders, the Rough Neckers drop 3 spots and out of that tier.  They still have the talent to contend, and the record is hurt by absurdly poor records in 1-run games (8-17) and extra innings (2-8), but at some point you have to win a game.  A true dark horse, OKC should be able to rebound, but needs to do so quickly.

  1. 9.       Atlanta TomTerrifics (Preseason: 8, 5 July: 11, Change: +2)
    Record: 32-33  Expected Win %: .492

Record since last update: 12-11

The TomTerrifics are basically the same team that was ranked 11th 23 games ago.  Their rise in the rankings (both rank and tier) has more to do with the collapse of the teams rated above them.  As long as they can stay near .500, they can be a dark horse threat.  Despite having the same record as the Rough Neckers, the TomTerrifics remain the less talented team.  The biggest thing keeping them in this tier is the indignity of being associated with the teams in the tier below.

The Mediocre

  1. 10.   San Juan Marauders (Preseason: 11, 5 July: 10, Change: -)
    Record: 29-36  Expected Win %: .454

Record since last update: 10-13

The Marauders continue to perform at almost the exact same expected win level (.449 to .454), but a 4 game sweep by Florida hurts their chances and clearly establishes them as mediocre and no threat to the better teams.  Honestly, this is a team that should likely be lower, but there are just a number of similarly bad teams at this level. The chasm between “Dark Horses” and “Mediocre” is massive and appears to be growing.

  1. 11.   Tampa Bay Twink Bois (Preseason: 13, 5 July: 12, Change: +1)
    Record: 29-36  Expected Win %: .418

Record since last update: 9-14

Tampa Bay has dropped 30 points of expected win percentage while going 9-14, due in part to a 3 game sweep by the Bears, and dropped into a tie for last in the division with the Marauders.  For all intents and purposes, these two teams (San Juan and Tampa Bay) are interchangeably mediocre as far as this season goes, though the Twink Bois also appear to be struggling in the minors, but have a younger ML roster.

  1. 12.   Boise Blues (Preseason: 12, 5 July: 15, Change: +3)
    Record: 26-39  Expected Win %: .411

Record since last update: 13-10

Despite Boise’s improvement, as predicted, there really is no way they should be ranked this high.  They’ve gotten eight of those wins against the Anchors and similarly moribund Moonshiners of the AL.  That said, at least they are winning and there is nobody else worth putting here, so Boise moves up 3 spots and away from the dregs of the league.

The Dregs

  1. 13.   Pawtucket Anchors (Preseason: 15, 5 July: 13, Change: -)
    Record: 28-37  Expected Win %: .453

Record since last update: 7-16

The Anchors have an argument for being the worst team over the last 23.  They’ve had the worst record despite a fairly balanced schedule (one series against the Oakland Bears aside), and they’ve lost over 40 points of expected win % while serving as the sacrificial lamb to allow the Boise Blues to ascend to mediocre.  The rank may not have changed due to similarly pathetic performances below them, but any hope of a surprise season by the Anchors has been firmly put to rest.  They are who we thought they were.

  1. 14.   Milwaukee Monsters (Preseason: 9, 5 July: 9, Change: -5)
    Record: 27-38  Expected Win %: .402

Record since last update: 7-16

Going into the last power rankings Milwaukee was riding a 5 game losing streak.  Having gone 7-16 since then, and dropping over 80 points of expected win percentage (.485 to .402) puts them squarely in the dregs.  They’ve played a schedule with few easy wins, but 7-16 is never excusable. Milwaukee probably saves Pawtucket the ignominy of being the worst team over the last 23 and looks poised to drop even further in the near future.

  1. 15.   Norfolk Waves (Preseason: 14, 5 July: 14, Change: -1)
    Record: 25-40  Expected Win %: .394

Record since last update: 8-15

Norfolk’s bats have woken up, averaging 3.96 runs/game in the last 22, as opposed to 3.0 in the 42 before that, but even that 3.96 rate ranks last in the majors (Dover and Tampa Bay have the next lowest at 4.03).  The pitching and defense have also gotten worse and only Dover’s slow start is sparing Norfolk the basement of the power rankings at the moment.

  1. 16.   Dover Punishment (Preseason: 16, 5 July: 16, Change: -)
    Record: 23-42  Expected Win %: .331

Record since last update: 8-15

There are positive signs in Dover as long as you are willing to greatly stretch the definition of positive.  Dover has a .348 winning percentage in their last 22, as compared to .357 in the 42 games before that, but at least their expected win % has increased from .326 to .331.  OK, none of these are really positive signs, rather confirmation that Dover really is that bad.  Interestingly the biggest positive may be the recent putrid performance of the Waves, Monsters and Anchors.  The Punishment may not need to improve to escape the power ranking basement, which is very good, since at this point it appears Dover lacks the capability for improvement.



One response to “7.13.2013 Power Rankings

  1. July 17th 9:30 am Oklahoma City, OK
    Owner Morgan Cintron has ended the managerial stint of manager of Barnabas Collins after a slow and disappointing start to season 17. Collins leaves after 4 plus years at the helm with a combined record of 343-397. Cintron has selected Lazarus of Bethany, who historically has raised teams from the dead, to lead the Rough Neckers from the chains of death. Cintron stated that the parting with Collins was amiacable but that ‘new life’ needed to be instilled for the remainder of the season.

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